Equity Research Report : Spotify Technology S.A.

Independent equity research on Spotify, built from scratch with no template and no guidance.

$700
price target
33%
implied upside
Strong Buy
initiation

Overview

Conducted independent equity research on Spotify, initiating coverage at Strong Buy with a $700 price target and 33% implied upside. Built from scratch, no template, no guidance.

Investment Thesis

The thesis centered on three things most analysts were underweighting:

  • An underappreciated gross margin inflection as the business mix shifts toward higher-margin verticals
  • A durable platform moat with 675 million monthly active users across music, podcasts, and audiobooks
  • Multi-layer monetization in early stages, advertising, partnerships, and premium tiers not yet fully priced in

What I Built

  • 12-slide investment committee deck with original financial modeling
  • DCF valuation with explicit assumptions on margin expansion and revenue growth
  • Comparable company analysis across streaming and media peers
  • Bull / base / bear scenario analysis with probability-weighted price targets
  • Equity research dashboard for ongoing monitoring

Tools & Skills

  • Financial modeling, DCF, comps, scenario analysis
  • Equity research methodology
  • PowerPoint (investment committee presentation format)
  • Independent fundamental analysis

What This Demonstrates

  • Ability to build a full investment thesis from first principles
  • Financial modeling rigor, not just conclusions, but the work behind them
  • Communication of complex analysis in a clear, structured format